Geopolitical Alpha An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future

Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource

Geopolitical Alpha ? An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.

Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers.  In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:

• What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
• Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
• How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns

Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.

Foreword by Steven Drobny vii

Introduction xi

Part One Scaffolding 1

Chapter 1 We’re Not in Kansas Anymore 3

Chapter 2 The Constraint Framework: Three Pillars 19

Chapter 3 The Wizards of Oz 44

Part Two The Constraints 69

Chapter 4 Politics 71

Chapter 5 The Economy and the Market 103

Chapter 6 Geopolitics 142

Chapter 7 Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Constraint–Preference Hybrids 161

Chapter 8 The Time Constraint: When Preferences Run Down the Clock 174

Part Three Operationalization 201

Chapter 9 The Art of the Net Assessment 203

Chapter 10 Game Theory – It’s Not a Game! 235

Chapter 11 Geopolitical Alpha 245

Chapter 12 Conclusion 261

Acknowledgements 265

Bibliography 271

Index 279

MARKO PAPIC is a Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, an alternative investment management firm based in California. In 2011, he founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice, the world's only dedicated investment consultancy focused on political analysis.