Forecasting from Multi-equation Econometric Micromodels, 1st ed. 2023 Contributions to Economics Series

Forecasting from multi-equation models has very rarely been the focus in econometric literature. In response, this book presents a range of methodologies to approach this complex field and offers readers essential information on forecasting from multi-equation econometric micromodels.

In the twentieth century, significant interest in econometric macromodels emerged. These multi-equation models are mostly systems of interdependent equations, most often used to describe the national economies of various countries. The book analyzes econometric forecasting procedures and illustrates them with empirical examples that are based on real economic (mostly business-derived) data. The procedure of forecast building from systems of interdependent equations is presented for two categories of econometric models: models with a feedback effect and models with closed-loop links between interdependent variables.

The forecasts obtained via this technique are compared with the results derived from reduced-form equations of the respective econometric model. The author also generalizes the rules of the reduced-recursive (helical, iterative) procedure application, against the backdrop of the proposed method of forecast building from reduced-form equations of systems of interdependent equations. Given its scope, the book will appeal not only to PhD students and researchers, but also undergraduate students and academics in general.

Chapter 1. Single-equation Econometric Model.- Chapter 2. Multi-equation Econometric Models.- Chapter 3. Econometric Forecasts.- Chapter 4. Forecasting From Simple Econometric Micromodels.- Chapter 5. Forecasts From Recursive Econometric Micromodels.- Chapter 6. Forecasting From Econometric Micromodels in the Form of a System of Interdependent Equations.  

Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski is full professor at the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń (Poland), He has authored over 150 scientific papers in the field of econometrics and statistics His main research focus is on micro-econometrics.

Explains the complexity of the topics in an accesible and readible manner

Includes empirical examples that are based on real data

Provides an overview of the different types of forecasting models