The Art and Science of Making Up Your Mind Applied Decision Theory for Non-statisticians

The Art and Science of Making Up Your Mind presents basic decision-making principles and tools to help the reader respond efficiently and wisely to everyday dilemmas.

Although most decisions are made informally (whether intuitively without deliberate thought, or based on careful reflection), over the centuries people have tried to develop systematic, scientific and structured ways in which to make decisions. Using qualitative counterparts to quantitative models, Rex Brown takes the reader through the basics, like ?what is a decision? and then considers a wide variety of real-life decisions, explaining how the best judgments can be made using logical principles.

Combining multiple evaluations of the same judgment ("hybrid judgment") and exploring innovative analytical concepts (such as "ideal judgment"), this book explores and analyzes the skills needed to master the basics of non-mathematical decision making, and what should be done, using real world illustrations of decision methods.

The book is an ideal companion for students of Thinking, Reasoning and Decision-Making, and also for anyone wanting to understand how to make better judgments in their everyday lives.

Chapter 1 - Introduction

Chapter 2 - Decision making

Chapter 3 - Term project: Evaluating a policy proposal

Chapter 4 - Qualitative decision aids

Chapter 5 - Hip surgery case

Chapter 6 - Quantitative ADT modeling

Chapter 7 - Family case study: C-section vs. "natural" child-birth?

Chapter 8 - Using ADT models

Chapter 9 - A civic case: Voting for president

Chapter 10 - Information value case: Life-saving diagnosis

Chapter 11 - Expanded view: Should we teach decision making in school?

Chapter 12 - Epilogue — What next?

Bibliography

Index

Rex V. Brown’s 50-year career combined research, consulting and teaching on helping people and organizations to make better decisions. He wrote five previous books on decision science and more than 80 papers and articles. Brown was a Distinguished Senior Fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He held faculty appointments at Harvard Business School, University College London, London School of Economics and the Universities of Michigan, Carnegie-Mellon, George Mason and Cambridge. He spent 20 years as Chairman of Decision Science Consortium, Inc. in Reston, Virginia, and was a founding Council Member of the Decision Analysis Society.