Peace through Self-Determination, 1st ed. 2020 Success and Failure of Territorial Autonomy Federalism and Internal Conflicts Series

Bringing together comparative politics, conflict research and social psychology, this book presents a novel theory to explain the consolidation outcomes of post-conflict autonomy arrangements. It builds on Social Identity Theory and identifies a successful process of ethnic recognition as the key prerequisite for peaceful interethnic cohabitation through territorial self-governance. As this process is highly context-dependent, the study identifies relevant structural and actor-centered factors and analyzes their occurrence in the consolidation periods of nineteen autonomy arrangements worldwide using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). The author concludes that elites accept autonomy reforms if they promise a high degree of self-determination and, at the same time, ethnic recognition is not hindered by horizontal inequalities. Bargaining efforts succeed within inclusive institutions involving non-nationalist parties and international organizations. Autonomy reforms fail if the degree of self-rule offered is too low and strong inequalities generate new grievances. Autocratic rule, nationalist parties, and a lack of international attention provide a breeding ground for further centrifugal activities. In-depth case studies on South Tyrol and the Chittagong Hill Tracts provide further evidence for the theoretical models.

1.1. Setting the Context: Ethnic Self-Determination Conflicts

1.2. Managing Institutions: Sharing or Dividing Power

1.3. Conceptualizing territorial autonomy

1.4. Identifying cases of post-conflict autonomy

1.5. Conclusion

2. Explaining Autonomy Success and Failure: An Identity-based Approach

2.1. Measuring Autonomy Success and Failure

2.2. Understanding ethnic recognition

2.3. A multi-causal model of Autonomy Success and Failure

2.4. Identifying favorable and unfavorable conditions

2.5. Conclusion

3. A Set-Theoretical Analysis of Autonomy Success and Failure

3.1. Operationalization and Calibration

3.2. Empirical Analysis

3.3. Robustness

4. The Causal Mechanisms behind Autonomy Success and Failure

4.1. Autonomy Success: The case of South Tyrol

4.2. Autonomy Failure: The case of Chittagong Hill Tracts

4.3. Summary

5. Conclusion: Increasing the Chances of Autonomy Success

6. Technical Appendix

Felix Schulte is a lecturer in the Institute of Political Science at Heidelberg University, Germany.