The Science and Management of Uncertainty Dealing with Doubt in Natural Resource Management

Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management.

The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches.

Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.

Preface. What is Uncertainty? Measuring Uncertainty. Modeling Uncertainty. Communicating Uncertainty. Capturing Expert Judgment. Decision-making Under Uncertainty. Fallacies of Logic and Inference. Case Topics. Summary and Conclusions. References. Index.

Bruce G. Marcot is a Research Wildlife Biologist with the U.S. Forest Service. He received his Ph.D. from Oregon State University in 1984. His expertise is in ecology and conservation of rare and at-risk species, probabilistic modeling, and application of risk analysis and decision science in conservation. His many international studies include impacts of climate change on wildlife biota, movement dynamics of organisms, and causal modeling of environmental stressors.