Dynamic Modeling for Marine Conservation, 2002 Modeling Dynamic Systems Series

The oceans are shrinking. They're not literally shrinking; warming in the last century has actually expanded the sea enough to threaten low-lying coastal lands that are vul­ nerable to storm surge. During the same interval, however, events on land have increasingly affected the sea. Since in most ways the Earth is a closed system-a zero-sum planet in today's parlance-as terrestrial influence on the sea expands, the sea's influence on its own processes shrinks. Control of many crucial marine processes no longer resides within the sea. The evidence for this is abundant and, to anyone who is looking, unmis­ takable. In recent decades scientists have witnessed unprecedented pertur­ bations and increases in previously uncommon events that demonstrate growing terrestrial influences on the sea. Numerous marine species, from sea urchins to monk seals, have experienced devastating epidemics. The number of harmful algal blooms and jellyfishpopulation explosions is rising An hypoxic "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico off the mouth of the Mississippi Rivernow appears each year and grows to encompass an area as large as NewJersey. Live coral cover in shallow reefs in Florida,Jamaica, the Maldives and many other locations has severely declined. Deepwater reef­ building corals, once widely distributed, have disappeared throughout much of their ranges. Researchers have discovered high concentrations of persis­ tent organic pollutants in declining populations of beluga whales and polar bears, both high trophic level predators in marine food webs.

Foreword.- Series Preface.- Acknowledgments.- Contributors.- I. Concepts and Techniques.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Modeling in STELLA.- 3. Predator-Prey Dynamics.- 4. Epidemics in the Marine System.- 5. Impact of Fishing Pressure on Mean Length of Fish.- 6. Spatial Fisheries Model.- II. Applications.- 7. Modeling Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions and Primary Productivity.- 8. Impact of Dynamic Light and Nutrient Environments on Phytoplankton Communities in the oastal Ocean.- 9. Modeling Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) Distributions in Great Bay, New Hampshire.- 10. Life-Stage-Based Recovery Dynamics of Marine Invertebrates in Soft-Sediment Habitats.- 11. Horseshoe Crabs and Shorebirds.- 12. Kelp, Urchins and Otters in the California Coastal Region.- 13. Nile Perch Population Dynamics in Lake Victoria: Implications for Management and Conservation.- 14. Dynamics of Multiple Fish Species Under Variable Levels of Exploitation.- 15. Fish Population Responses to Sea Floor Habitat Alteration: Implications for the Design of Marine Protected Areas.- 16. Management of the Commons: Social Behavior and Resource Extraction.- 17. An Age-Structured Model of Fish Population Enhancement: Implications for Conservation and Economic Sustainability.- 18. The Global Shrimp Market.- III. Conclusion.- 19. Reflections on the Parts and the Whole.- Appendix: Installation Instructions for Dynamic Modeling for Marine Conservation.- References.