Tomorrows asia : 10 myths about the future of asia A Look at the Demographic and Socio-economic Structure of the World in 2032

Tomorrow?s World maps out the world?s near future through the lens of demography, dealing with issues of health and wealth; death and taxes; buying and selling; education and progress; and how and where we choose to live. The last century saw the world?s population quadruple, the emergence of mega?cities and increased urbanisation, and large changes in fertility, mortality, healthcare, education, and income. The world we live in today was profoundly shaped by those changes. This book looks at what?s happening now and how demographic changes will reshape the twenty?first century. It highlights the most significant current demographic realities and explains the implications they?ll have for our near future. If you run a business, manage a brand, or just want to know what the future looks like, Tomorrow?s World is a must?read.

• A vitally important look at demographic trends how they will effect labour, education, population, economics, and business in this century
• Written by the founder and Managing Director of Global Demographics Ltd., a leading demographic agency that consults with companies on market and business planning
• A must?read book for economists, financial analysts, brand managers, and business leaders

If you ever wanted to know what tomorrow?s world will look like, you have to start by looking at the world today. This book reveals how the experts expect our socio?economic landscape to evolve, identifying threats and opportunities along the way.

Acknowledgments ix

Introduction xi

Chapter 1 The Present Demographic Scenario 1

The Current State of Global Demography 2

Where Is Everyone? 6

Age Profile 7

The Household 8

Urbanisation 10

Education 11

Employment 13

Household Income 16

Summary 19

Chapter 2 Population Change by 2032 21

Migration, Births, and Death Rates 22

Death Rates 31

The Implications for Total Population Changes 32

The Changing Age Profile 34

Summary 38

Chapter 3 Tomorrow s Household 41

The Modern Household 41

The Changing Nature of Tomorrow s

Households 45

Employment and Dependency Ratios 48

Household Dependency Ratios 49

Summary 51

Chapter 4 Education and Productivity 53

The Education Index 54

The Future Demand for Education (and Standards) 56

Education s Impact on Society 60

Can India Catch Up? 62

Strategic Implications 63

Summary 65

Chapter 5 The Evolving Labour Force 67

Factors Influencing the Size and Value of the Labour Force 68

Strategic Implications 84

Summary 85

Chapter 6 Where in the World Is the Money? 87

Elephants in the Room 87

Usefulness of GDP for Evaluating the Potential of the Consumer Market of One Country Relative to Another 89

What Is the Best Way to Compare Expenditure among Countries? 91

So, Where Is the Money? 92

Relative Average Household Incomes per Capita in 2012 94

Where Will the Money Be in the Future? 96

The Future for Household Incomes 106

Deciding Whether to Save or Spend 109

Summary 111

Chapter 7 Distribution of Households by Income 113

Introduction 114

The Different Income Segments 116

Who Are the Middle Class? 127

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): When Not to Use It 133

Strategic Implications 134

Summary 135

Chapter 8 The Changing Pattern of Consumer Expenditure 139

The Basic Relationship between Consumption and Affluence 140

Changes in Expenditure by Income Segment and Region 148

Age Group and Expenditure Where Should Brands Target Their Efforts in Future? 156

Strategic Implications 159

Summary 160

Chapter 9 The Health Tsunami 163

The Relationship between Ageing and Demand for Health Services 165

The Cost of Health Care 171

Summary 179

Chapter 10 Behind the Hype: The Future for China and India 181

China: A Special Case 182

The Future for India 195

Strategic Implications 204

Summary 205

Chapter 11 Conclusion 207

The Old Affluent Regions 208

Eastern Europe 212

South America 213

Developing Asia 215

North Africa and the Middle East 217

India 218

China 221

To Conclude 225

About the Author 227

Index 229

• Economists & financial analysts
• Multinationals
• Strategists
• Marketers
  
  

Dr. Clint Laurent is the founder and Managing Director of Global Demographics Ltd., formerly Asian Demographics Ltd. Dr. Laurent moved to Hong Kong in 1976, initially with Hong Kong University and then as a director of Price Waterhouse, where he built up a market research and consultancy group. In the following years, Dr. Laurent founded and sold off two leading regional research companies—Asia Market Intelligence Ltd. and then Asia Studies Ltd. before launching Asian Demographics in 1997. Dr. Laurent holds a PhD in marketing and statistics from Bath University in the UK.