The Permanent Crisis Iran’s Nuclear Trajectory Whitehall Papers Series
Auteur : Joshi Shashank
The quickening pace of Iran?s nuclear activities has produced an international sense of urgency. Sanctions have intensified, while fears of an Israeli strike abound. Talks have briefly eased the tension, before failing due to fundamental differences between Iran and the West. There seem to be dim prospects for peaceful resolution; the worry is that this long-running dispute could become a permanent crisis.
This Whitehall Paper tackles the Iranian nuclear dispute in its full context to determine what possible compromises may exist and how they may be achieved.
While the crisis is embedded in a set of overlapping security disputes between Iran on the one hand, and the United States, Arab regional powers, Israel and the broader ?West? on the other, it is also important to analyse it in a comparative and thematic context. Iran?s programme is not sui generis: previous experience can help to inform our assessments of how Iran will be affected by, and respond to, intense multilateral economic and political pressure, and what its nuclear posture might be. This study also examines how policy responses by the West should evolve were Iran to resume its alleged nuclear-weapons programme, continue to undertake some degree of near-weaponisation or weaponisation, or test and deploy nuclear weapons.
The Permanent Crisis questions the assumptions and logic of alarmist studies ? those which see a nuclear Iran as fanatical, unresponsive to deterrence and certain to precipitate a wave of unstoppable nuclear proliferation ? whilst outlining the very real risks that would flow from such a failure of Western policy.
Shashank Joshi is a Research Fellow at RUSI and a doctoral student at Harvard University’s Department of Government. He is also a widely published commentator on South Asian and Middle Eastern security.
Date de parution : 12-2012
15.6x23.4 cm
Date de parution : 06-2017
15.6x23.4 cm
Thèmes de The Permanent Crisis :
Mots-clés :
irans; nuclear; iran; enriched; uranium; sanctions; relief; iranian; weapon; programme; Iranian Nuclear; CIA's Assessment; Seyed Hossein Mousavian; Israeli Defense Forces; Iranian Nuclear Crisis; Scientific Nationalism; Iranian Nuclear Weapon; IRGC; Islamic Republic's Foreign Policy; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; Nuclear Weapons Capable Iran; Sanctions Relief; Iranian Weaponisation; Heavy Water Reactor; Syria's Nuclear Programme; Nuclear Posture; Sir John Sawers; Iran’s Nuclear Progress; Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee; Nuclear Weapons; Afghan National Army Troops; NATO’s Missile Defence System; Alleged Nuclear Weapons Programme; Iranian Enrichment; CIA Report