OPEC and the Price of Petroleum, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1989 Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Evidence Coll. Studies in International Economics and Institutions

1. 1. Oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic performance Drastic oil price fluctuations have been a major characteristic of the world petroleum market since the beginning of the seventies. The oil crises of 1973n4 and 1979/80 were followed by a dramatic drop of the oil price during the first two quarters of 1986. Starting from a level less than 2 $ per barrel in 1972, the spot market price of Arabian Light crude oil increased to some 35 $ in 1980, then slowly decreased, and finally fell to 13 $ in 1986 (annual averages). If monthly data are considered, the peaks of the oil price movement look even more dramatic. In December 1980 Arabian crude was traded for more than 40 $ a barrel, and in August 1986 the price was down at 8 $ (see Fig. 1. 1). 40 30 20 10 r o 84 88 76 80 72 Figure 1. 1: The spot market price of Saudi-Arabian Light crude oil! ! Data are taken from the Petroleum Economist and the OPEC Bulletin, various issues. 2 After the Second World War petroleum has become the most important energy resource. During the fifties and sixties its price was relatively low compared to other energy 2 sources like coal and firewood and it tended to drive them out of the market.

1. Introduction.- 1.1. Oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic performance.- 1.2. Plan of the study.- 2. The world petroleum market: history and institutions.- 2.1. Petroleum as an exhaustible resource.- 2.2. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.- 2.3. The price of petroleum.- 2.4. A brief history of the world petroleum market.- 2.5. Summary of some stylised facts.- 3. The price of petroleum in economic theory.- 3.1. Types of oil market models.- 3.2. The economic theory of exhaustible resources.- 3.3. Parameter changes in the standard model.- 3.4. Approaches without exhaustibility.- 3.5. An evaluation.- 4. An intertemporal model of OPEC’s pricing policy.- 4.1. Basic assumptions.- 4.2. Necessary conditions of optimality.- 4.3. The consumption path.- 4.4. Accumulation of foreign assets and the existence of an optimal solution.- 4.5. The price path.- 4.6. The equilibrium in the long run.- 4.7. An evaluation of the model and its results.- 5. A simplified version of the model.- 5.1. The assumptions.- 5.2. Optimality conditions.- 5.3. The optimal pricing policy.- 5.4. Imperfect information and the occurrence of price shocks.- 5.5. Theoretical results and the empirical oil price cycle: a comparison.- 6. An econometric model of the world petroleum market.- 6.1. Objectives of the investigation.- 6.2. OPEC and oil price fluctuations.- 6.3. Empirical results.- 6.4. Optimal pricing policies in the empirical model.- 7. Final remarks.- 7.1. Summary and conclusions.- 7.2. A remark on policy implications.- 7.3. Areas of future research.- Appendix: Optimal control theory.- A.1. The problem.- A.2. Necessary and sufficient conditions.- A.3. Saddle points and the stability of optimal solutions.- References.