Handbook of Decision Analysis

A ONE–OF–A–KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single– and multiple–objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real–world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper–undergraduate and graduate levels.

List of Figures ix List of Tables xiii Foreword xv Preface xxi Acknowledgments xxv About the Authors xxvii Acronyms xxxi 1 Introduction to Decision Analysis 1 Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick 2 Decision–Making Challenges 22 Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell 3 Foundations of Decision Analysis 46 Gregory S. Parnell and Steven N. Tani 4 Decision Analysis Soft Skills 68 Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell 5 Use the Appropriate Decision Process 92 Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell 6 Frame the Decision Opportunity 110 Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell 7 Craft the Decision Objectives and Value Measures 127 Gregory S. Parnell, Terry A. Bresnick, and Eric R. Johnson 8 Design Creative Alternatives 149 Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell 9 Perform Deterministic Analysis and Develop Insights 166 Eric R. Johnson, Gregory S. Parnell, and Steven N. Tani 10 Quantify Uncertainty 227 Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani 11 Perform Probabilistic Analysis and Identify Insights 248 Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani 12 Portfolio Resource Allocation 291 Terry A. Bresnick, Eric R. Johnson, and Gregory S. Parnell 13 Communicating with Decision Makers and Stakeholders 320 Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick 14 Enable Decision Implementation 340 Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell 15 Summary of Major Themes 351 Gregory S. Parnell Appendix A: Probability Theory 362 Steven N. Tani Appendix B: Influence Diagrams 374 Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell Appendix C: Decision Conferencing 381 Terry A. Bresnick Index 392