Baseball prospectus 2012 (paperback)

The 2012 Edition of the New York Times bestselling guide

"The Best Book Of Its Kind."*Rob Neyer

Now in its seventeenth edition, the Baseball Prospectus annual shows once again how it became the industry leader: the 2012 edition includes key stat categories, more controversial player predictions, and the kind of wise, witty baseball commentary that makes this phone-book-thick tome worth reading cover to cover.

Baseball Prospectus 2012 provides fantasy players and insiders alike with uncannily prescient PECOTA projections, which Sports Illustrated has called "perhaps the game"s most accurate projection model." Still, stats are just numbers if you don"t see the larger context, and Baseball Prospectus brings together an elite team of analysts to provide the definitive look at all thirty teams*their players, their prospects, and their managers*to explain away flukes, hot streaks, injury-tainted numbers, park effects, and overrated prospects who won"t be able to fool people in the Show like they have down on the farm.

Nearly every Major League team has sought the advice of current or former Prospectus writers, and readers of Baseball Prospectus 2012 will understand what all those fans have been raving about.

"If you"re a baseball fan and you don"t know what BP is, you"re working in a mine without one of those helmets with the lights on it."
*Keith Olbermann

"For me, every year baseball begins with the big, brilliant, beautiful book you are holding in your hands right now." *Joe Posnanski

"Baseball Prospectus continues to raise the bar for innovative baseball analysis every year."
*Mark Shapiro, President, Cleveland Indians

"If a general manager hasn"t read Baseball Prospectus, he should be fired for incompetence."
*Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball

Baseball Prospectus 2011 correctly predicted:

• The collapse of 2010 stars Vernon Wells, Trevor Cahill, and Austin Jackson, as well as serious regression for Josh Hamilton and Ubaldo Jimenez

• Strong comebacks for Pablo Sandoval and Carlos Beltran, as well as Dan Haren"s strong finish with the Angels being a better indicator of 2011 performance than his pre-trade struggles with the D-Backs

• Breakout seasons from Michael Pineda, Desmond Jennings, Danny Espinosa, Craig Kimbrel, and Jeremy Hellickson

• That Albert Pujols plus the Cardinals" starting rotation would still be a recipe for success

• That the Diamondbacks had a much brighter immediate future than the typical last-place club

• That Dave Dombrowski"s roster restructuring in Detroit would lead the Tigers back into contention

Preface ix
King Kaufman and Cecilia M. Tan

Statistical Introduction xi
Colin Wyers

Teams

Arizona Diamondbacks 1

Atlanta Braves 19

Baltimore Orioles 37

Boston Red Sox 54

Chicago Cubs 71

Chicago White Sox 88

Cincinnati Reds 105

Cleveland Indians 122

Colorado Rockies 138

Detroit Tigers 155

Houston Astros 172

Kansas City Royals 192

Los Angeles Angels 211

Los Angeles Dodgers 228

Miami Marlins 249

Milwaukee Brewers 266

Minnesota Twins 282

New York Mets 301

New York Yankees 318

Oakland Athletics 336

Philadelphia Phillies 351

Pittsburgh Pirates 367

St. Louis Cardinals 385

San Diego Padres 401

San Francisco Giants 419

Seattle Mariners 434

Tampa Bay Rays 451

Texas Rangers 469

Toronto Blue Jays 484

Washington Nationals 501

The Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects 517
Kevin Goldstein

Team Name Codes 527

PECOTA Leaderboards 530

Contributors 535

Acknowledgments 538

Index 540