Land food and use security in 2050 : a narrow road Agrimonde-Terra Coll. Matière à débattre & décider

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After a first foresight study on ‘World food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on ‘Land use and food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security.

Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled ‘Metropolization’, ‘Regionalization’ and ‘Households’ are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled ‘Healthy’ and ‘Communities’ involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The ‘Healthy’ scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the ‘Metropolization’ scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors.

This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels.

Preface
Michel Eddi, Philippe Mauguin

Acknowledgements
Introduction

1. The ’Land Use and Food Security’ System
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Chantal Le Mouël and Olivier Mora

2. Agrimonde-Terra’s Foresight Approach to Scenario Construction
Olivier Mora and Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

3. The GlobAgri-Agrimonde-Terra Database and Model
Chantal Le Mouël, Patrice Dumas, Stéphane Manceron, Agneta Forslund and Elodie Marajo-Petitzon

4. Land-use Change Trajectories in Existing Scenario Studies
Chantal Le Mouël and Agneta Forslund

5. Retrospective Overview of Land Uses at Global Level and by World Regions
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Marco Barzman, Pauline Marty and Clémence Moreau

6. The Global Context
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet and Clémence Moreau

7. Climate Change: Impacts and Mitigation
Thierry Brunelle, Patrice Dumas, Christophe Cassen, Stéphane Manceron, Elodie Marajo-Petitzon and Véronique Lamblin

8. Dietary Changes, Nutrition Transition and the Future of Global Diets
Olivier Mora

9. Urbanization, Rural Transformation and Future Urban-Rural Linkages
Olivier Mora, Frédéric Lançon and Francis Aubert

10. Farm Structures: Current Shaping Forces and Future Farms
Catherine Donnars, Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Jacques Marzin and Laurent Piet

11. Cropping Systems
Olivier Réchauchère, David Makowski, Eric Malézieux and Florent Maraux

12. Livestock Systems
Stéphane Manceron, Patrice Dumas, Clémence Moreau, Alexandre Ickowicz, Philippe Lecomte and Philippe Lescoat

13. Scenarios of Land Use and Food Security in 2050
Olivier Mora

14. Land-use Change Impacts of the Agrimonde-Terra Scenarios: An Assessment with the GlobAgri-AgT Model
Chantal Le Mouël and Elodie Marajo-Petitzon

15. Regional Dimension of the Agrimonde-Terra Scenarios: The Example of sub-Saharan Africa
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Clémence Moreau and John Okul

16. Lessons on Land Use and Food Security from the Scenarios
Chantal Le Mouël, Olivier Mora and Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

17. Options for public policies
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

Conclusion
References

Appendix 1
Appendix 2
Authors