Business cycles and forecasting

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Langue : Anglais
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Sommaire de Business cycles and forecasting

I. HISTORY AND FRAMEWORK OF THE ANALYSIS.

1. Aggregate Supply, Demand, and Profits.
2. History of the Business Cycle.
3. Measurement of the Business Cycle.

II. SOME COMPONENTS OF REVENUE AND COST.

4. Consumption.
5. Investment.
6. Functional Income Distribution: Labor Income and Property Income.
7. Material Costs and Profits.

III. THEORIES OF THE CYCLE.

8. Business Cycle Theories Before Keynes.
9. Business Cycle Theories After Keynes.
10. The Multiplier-Accelerator Model.
11. Demand-Side Theories.
12. Supply-Side or Cost Theories of the Business Cycle.
13. Profit Squeeze (or Nutcracker) Theory of the Cycle.

IV. ADDING REALISM TO THE BASIC MODEL.

14. Credit and Financial Crises.
15. Monopoly Power, Inflation, and Business Cycles.
16. The International Economy and Business Cycles.
17. Government Fiscal Behavior and Policy.
18. How to Prepare a Forecast.
19. The Indicator Approach.
20. Time Series Models.
21. Econometric Models.
22. Examples of Forecasting and Models.